HOW TO CREATE A REALISTIC DEMAND FORECAST TO STABILISE AND STRENGTHEN YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN IN VOLATILE TIMES
Business update #9
The disruptive impact from COVID-19 on most businesses and their supply chain is severe, and for many supply chain leaders, the worst is probably still to come from the lock-down now also spreading across US and Europe.
As an immediate response to this crisis, many businesses have already set up a ‘war room’ and a cross-functional Crisis Management Response (CMR) team to quickly and effectively address the immediate and adverse effects of COVID-19 on their supply chain. The focus has – for good reasons – been short term. The attention of many supply chain leaders is, however, already now gradually starting to shift from short-term firefighting actions to more medium- to long-term actions aimed at stabilising and strengthening their supply chain.
We have gathered four recommended actions:
- (Re-)assess and, potentially, redefine the level of granularity and time horizon used for the demand forecast.
- Assess and, potentially, redefine the current demand planning process
- Leverage statistical forecasting and demand sensing tools to generate a realistic demand forecast on a continuous and frequent basis
- Assess if the current people skills and resources available are sufficient and, if not, decide how best to close this gap
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